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The Banks Are Fine. That's the Problem.
Regulators are stress-testing whether private credit will infect the banking system. SEC filings from the three largest non-traded BDCs show the opposite: banks are being repaid, not exposed. The $13.4 billion in new debt that funded $8.8 billion in redemptions sits with CLO investors, bondholders, and insurers, not on bank balance sheets. The risk did not disappear. It moved to where nobody is looking.
Was die Nachfolge-Krise im deutschen Mittelstand für die Unternehmensfinanzierung bedeutet
Erstmals planen mehr deutsche Mittelständler die Schließung als eine Nachfolge: 569.000 vs. 545.000. Das KfW-Nachfolge-Monitoring 2025 zeigt steigende Kaufpreise, sinkende Investitionen bei ungeklärter Nachfolge und wachsenden Finanzierungsbedarf. Warum Private Credit eine strukturelle Rolle in der Nachfolgefinanzierung des Mittelstands übernimmt — eine datenbasierte Analyse.
Valuation of Leveraged Loans - Implications for Private Credit
The price of CCC-rated loans declines while the other rating categories (BB and B) remain somewhat stable. And the price differential is worse than during COVID - and we don't even have a big macro shock (yet).
The Wrong Diagnosis: What the Private Credit Stress of March 2026 Actually Tells Us
The private credit headlines of March 2026 are striking — redemption gates, JPMorgan markdowns, warnings of rising defaults. But the dominant framing misidentifies what is actually breaking. A specific product design has failed: semi-liquid retail vehicles that offered quarterly liquidity against 4–7 year corporate loans. That is not a private credit crisis. It is a maturity mismatch crisis. Meanwhile the data that actually matters — PIK activation rates, junior tranches marked above distressed senior debt in the same borrower — is underreported. The bank-NBFI back-leverage channel is where stress crosses the regulatory perimeter, and the transmission mechanism is more precise than most coverage suggests. And the European financing gap left by Basel IV constrained bank balance sheets has not changed because US BDCs got gated. This post works through the evidence and the implications for regulators and researchers
When Hidden Leverage Becomes Systemic
“Improve transparency, strengthen oversight, and enhance market discipline”
