From research to a quarterly indicator set.
The Radar turns research on loan contracting, nonbank lending and bank–nonbank interconnection into six quarterly indicators of credit stress in private credit, computed from public SEC filings. It runs on its own site, privatecreditradar.eu; the research team is at the Centre for European Transformation at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. Public data only. Aggregates only.
First release, 2 November 2026: 10.3% of loan positions in US BDC portfolios were marked below 90% of face value at 30 June 2026, up from 7.7% a year earlier.
Quarterly, aligned to the BDC filing calendar.
US BDC book, 2023 Q1 to 2026 Q2
Six standing indicators, public deck, data and method in brief. Indicator series as a CSV file after registration.
Q3 edition and European book
US book rolled forward to 30 September 2026; European borrowers in US BDC schedules as a separate cut.
Liquidity flash
Undrawn commitments to borrowers already under stress.
Q4 edition
Loan books at 31 December 2026 from the FY2026 annual reports. Quarterly thereafter, about six weeks after the last BDC filing of the quarter.
Get notified at release.
One email per release. No other mailings.
Stress is visible in the filings before it is visible in defaults.
Private credit absorbs stress through valuation markdowns, payment-in-kind interest and loan amendments long before a payment default. The Radar is built to see that stage. It reads every schedule of investments that US business development companies file with the SEC, follows each loan from quarter to quarter, and reports six indicators in the order in which stress becomes visible: valuation marks, payment relief, non-accrual.
| # | Indicator | What it measures | Built on |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loans marked below 90 and below 80 | Valuation stress before any payment event | Valuation of leveraged loans |
| 2 | Markdown breadth | Loans marked down five points or more in the quarter | Loans followed from one quarter to the next |
| 3 | Cross-manager mark gap | Borrowers held by two or more managers whose marks differ by five points or more | One borrower identifier across all funds |
| 4 | PIK switch rate | Loans that moved from cash to payment-in-kind interest in the quarter | When Flexibility Becomes Forbearance (Rintamäki, Steffen) |
| 5 | Distress amendments and other amendments | PIK switch, spread step-up or maturity extension, with or without a mark below 90 or a markdown | CovenantAI (Saunders, Steffen, Verhoff) |
| 6 | Non-accrual rate | Debt at cost on which the fund has stopped accruing interest | SEC schedules of investments, inline XBRL |
Thresholds (90, 80, 5 points) are parameters; the series are published with them fixed, and any change is reported with its effect on the history.
Why a personal research site carries a market monitor.
Measurement first
Loan-level data on private credit does not exist outside these filings. The Radar is the measurement layer derived from our research, published so that others can use it.
Independence
Everything is grounded in independent research. Release dates, definitions, corrections and the right of reply are decided by the research team.
Europe as the target
US BDCs are the benchmark because they are the only segment with public marks. The European book states its coverage plainly: which borrowers, which lenders, what share of the market it plausibly sees.
Public results for everyone. Depth for partners of the Centre.
The six standing indicators and the data and method brief are published every quarter and free to read; the indicator series is available as a CSV file after registration. Partners of the Centre for European Transformation receive depth tables, a closed call on release day, quarterly depth notes and seats at the Centre's roundtables, under a contract with Frankfurt School.
Write to me directly to discuss a partnership, a board session or a research collaboration.
Prof. Dr. Sascha Steffen · Frankfurt School of Finance & Management · Adickesallee 32–34, 60322 Frankfurt am Main
- Public SEC filings only.
- Every number carries its source and vintage.
- Fund-level figures name the fund and its filing; no borrower is named.
- Views are my own.
Prof. Dr. Sascha Steffen, author and editor
Kevin Guldager, pre-doctoral researcher, Centre for European Transformation
Eike Rabe, research assistant, Centre for European Transformation
Giorgi Katchiuri, research assistant, Centre for European Transformation
Open positions: pre-doc and post-doc, from January 2027