Time-series plot of the loan spread (red) and the bond spread (black) from 2000 until September 2020.

Corporate Loan Spreads and
​Economic Activity 

Working Paper ***NEW***
We study the predictive power of loan versus bond spreads for business cycle fluctuations. Using a novel credit spread measure derived from the secondary loan market, we show that loan market-based credit spreads have additional predictive power for macroeconomic outcomes (such as employment and industrial production) compared to bond spreads as well as other credit spreads and equity returns, both in the U.S. and Europe. Differences in the composition of firms borrowing in loan or bond markets are important in understanding the differential predictive power of both credit spreads. Industry specific loan spreads predict different industry cycles and can be used to construct alternative weighting schemes which further improve the predictive power of loan spreads.

Brexit and the Contraction of Syndicated Lending​

Journal of Financial Economics,
forthcoming
We document a 23% decline in loan issuances in the UK syndicated loan market after the Brexit vote relative to a set of comparable loan markets both globally and in the EU and using a matched sample based on pre-Brexit loan issuances. The decline in lending is mostly driven by a reduction of UK firm borrowing, but we do not find evidence that the UK loses its attractiveness as a financial center for cross-border borrowing.​ [...]

Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector

Review of Financial Studies,
​forthcoming
We analyze the determinants and the long-run consequences of government interventions in the eurozone banking sector during the 2008/09 financial crisis. Using a novel and comprehensive dataset, we document that fiscally constrained governments "kicked the can down the road" by providing banks with guarantees instead of full-fledged recapitalizations. [...] 

Why did bank stocks crash during COVID-19?​​

We study the crash of bank stock prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find evidence consistent with a “credit line drawdown channel”. Stock prices of banks with large ex-ante exposures to undrawn credit lines as well as large ex-post gross drawdowns decline more. The effect is attenuated for banks with higher capital buffers. These banks reduce term loan lending, even after policy measures were implemented. [...]